Per-Game Box-Score Projections — 2026 Season
Per-player, per-week NFL projections — passing / rushing / receiving yards and TDs, plus receptions and INTs. Methodology: Ridge regression per (position × stat) on a 5-feature substrate. Forward 2026 season: Stafford 4358 / Henry 1773 / Puka 1615 / Pickens-to-DAL captured. Refreshed weekly Mondays.
QB Projections — Season Totals
sorted by passing yardsMethodology
ridge per (position × stat) · forward 2026Inputs: 5-feature substrate — recent-form rate, season-rate, opponent baseline, role/depth-chart, schedule strength.
Coverage: 8,738 player-week rows × 18 stat columns. 4 positions modeled per Ridge separately: QB (1207 rows), RB (2176), WR (3349), TE (2006). Schedule walks the full 2026 regular season (18 weeks).
Refresh: the sports_lines cron re-runs the model every Monday 05:00 (post-Sunday games) during the season, picking up coaching/scheme shifts, depth-chart moves, injuries.
What this is NOT: not fantasy points (use the season-aggregate page for PPR/standard scoring), not playoff projections (season schedule only), not a DST or K projection.
v2 roadmap (banked): coaching/scheme regime shift overlay (e.g. Vrabel→NE), PPR aggregation column, rookie overlay via Batch 23 transfer operator (N05), injury filter, per-projection CI from Ridge variance + holdout MAE.