nfl projections

resolve nfl

stat projections from our proprietary model. numbers refresh when the model is updated. playoff projections refresh daily during the playoffs.

fantasy football tool

sections

advanced resolve metrics box-score projections

positions

quarterbacks running backs wide receivers tight ends kickers team defense idp

schedule teams

how the projections have held up

85%

of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly

29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus

RPS 0.171

World Cup ranked-probability score

tighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)

54%

hit rate on 165 NBA playoff calls

beat the closing market

release notes

2026-06-27

release notes

v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.

2026-06-27

methodology writeups

NFL projections come in three layers: a weekly in-season fit, a preseason season-long projection calibrated against published benchmarks, and a coaching-change adjustment for new head coaches or coordinators. Each layer ships only after beating the previous version on seasons it wasn't trained on.

soon

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.