nfl projections
resolve nfl
stat projections from our proprietary model. numbers refresh when the model is updated. playoff projections refresh daily during the playoffs.
the ways in
how the model has held up, across the site
85%of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus
RPS 0.171World Cup ranked-probability scoretighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)
54%hit rate on 165 NBA playoff callsbeat the closing market
These are the model's results wherever it has been scored so far. Per sport numbers replace them as each sport builds up a record.
what has changed
release notes
2026-06-27
release notes
v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.
2026-06-27
methodology writeups
NFL projections come in three layers: a weekly in-season fit, a preseason season-long projection calibrated against published benchmarks, and a coaching-change adjustment for new head coaches or coordinators. Each layer ships only after beating the previous version on seasons it wasn't trained on.
soon
model retrospectives
what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.