nfl projections
ratings
Power ratings and simulated season outcomes for all 32 teams.
| # | team | conf | power | projected wins | one seed | playoffs | super bowl | conf rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | NFC | 1659 | 13.6 | 54.9% | 99.0% | 16.2% | 10-2 |
| 2 | BUF | AFC | 1650 | 12.2 | 31.0% | 93.1% | 12.8% | 8-4 |
| 3 | MIN | NFC | 1626 | 12.6 | 29.8% | 95.6% | 11.1% | 9-3 |
| 4 | SEA | NFC | 1650 | 10.4 | 5.4% | 83.6% | 9.3% | 7-5 |
| 5 | DEN | AFC | 1610 | 11.2 | 12.9% | 82.7% | 7.4% | 8-4 |
| 6 | NE | AFC | 1614 | 10.8 | 10.5% | 79.1% | 6.7% | 9-3 |
| 7 | KC | AFC | 1579 | 11.6 | 18.8% | 84.3% | 6.3% | 9-3 |
| 8 | JAX | AFC | 1600 | 11.2 | 11.6% | 82.9% | 6.3% | 8-4 |
| 9 | CHI | NFC | 1555 | 9.7 | 2.4% | 68.3% | 3.1% | 7-5 |
| 10 | BAL | AFC | 1554 | 10.0 | 5.2% | 61.5% | 3.0% | 7-5 |
| 11 | DET | NFC | 1550 | 9.8 | 3.2% | 68.5% | 2.9% | 7-5 |
| 12 | PIT | AFC | 1541 | 10.0 | 4.1% | 59.6% | 2.8% | 6-6 |
| 13 | GB | NFC | 1532 | 9.5 | 2.2% | 63.0% | 2.4% | 6-6 |
| 14 | CIN | AFC | 1521 | 9.7 | 3.6% | 54.4% | 1.9% | 6-6 |
| 15 | LA | NFC | 1552 | 8.1 | 0.4% | 41.3% | 1.8% | 6-6 |
| 16 | HOU | AFC | 1545 | 8.4 | 0.4% | 35.5% | 1.7% | 6-6 |
| 17 | CAR | NFC | 1493 | 8.8 | 1.1% | 49.4% | 1.3% | 7-5 |
| 18 | CLE | AFC | 1452 | 9.3 | 1.6% | 41.7% | 0.8% | 6-6 |
| 19 | PHI | NFC | 1484 | 7.6 | 0.2% | 29.5% | 0.7% | 5-7 |
| 20 | NYG | NFC | 1426 | 7.7 | 0.3% | 29.5% | 0.3% | 5-7 |
| 21 | ATL | NFC | 1448 | 6.8 | 0.0% | 16.4% | 0.2% | 5-7 |
| 22 | LV | AFC | 1414 | 7.2 | 0.1% | 11.9% | 0.2% | 5-7 |
| 23 | DAL | NFC | 1425 | 6.8 | 0.0% | 15.2% | 0.2% | 4-8 |
| 24 | NO | NFC | 1418 | 6.7 | 0.0% | 15.6% | 0.2% | 5-7 |
| 25 | IND | AFC | 1423 | 6.6 | 0.0% | 8.6% | 0.1% | 4-8 |
| 26 | WAS | NFC | 1406 | 6.1 | 0.0% | 9.5% | 0.1% | 4-8 |
| 27 | ARI | NFC | 1386 | 6.2 | 0.0% | 8.2% | 0.1% | 4-8 |
| 28 | TB | NFC | 1422 | 5.6 | 0.0% | 7.3% | 0.1% | 5-7 |
| 29 | NYJ | AFC | 1374 | 5.8 | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 5-7 |
| 30 | MIA | AFC | 1368 | 3.8 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 3-9 |
| 31 | LAC | AFC | 1405 | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 3-9 |
| 32 | TEN | AFC | 1317 | 4.2 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3-9 |
Each team's Elo starts from its preseason rating (end of 2025, regressed toward average) and moves with every final, the same rating behind our pick on every game. Games already played count as played; the rest of the 2026 schedule is simulated 10,000× and rebuilt every week. Win totals carry a 90% CI (p5–p95; the rating spread was calibrated to ~90% coverage across 2012–2025 walk-forward), shown beside the expected win total. Playoff seeding is simplified to top-7-by-wins per conference (it does not enforce the division-winner guarantee — a small effect on playoff-bubble teams; the #1 seed is unaffected). Neutral-site / international games currently use home-field advantage.