nfl power ratings & win projections
| # | team | conf | power | projected wins | one seed | playoffs | super bowl | conf rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading ratings… | ||||||||
power = team Elo (1500 = average)
projected wins = mean of 10k simulated seasons; ± = 90% CI (p5–p95)
one seed = P(conference #1 seed / bye)
super bowl = championship probability
Preseason Elo (end-2025, regressed toward average) simulates the real 2026 schedule 10,000×; win totals carry a calibrated 90% CI (p5–p95, tuned to ~90% coverage across 2012–2025 walk-forward), so a spread-implied win range collapses to the single expected win total shown, with the honest interval beside it. Playoff seeding is simplified to top-7-by-wins per conference (it does not enforce the division-winner guarantee — a small effect on playoff-bubble teams; the #1 seed is unaffected). Neutral-site / international games currently use home-field advantage.