nfl methodology
The NFL Fantasy Math
A fantasy number is a projection run through a league's rules: how many points a player scores, and how many more than the player you could pick up instead. Every rank, tier and dollar on the fantasy board comes from those two.
Project every player's stat line. Score it in your league's format. Find the player at each position you could get for free, and measure everyone against him — that's value over replacement, and it's what orders the draft board and sets the auction prices. Once the season starts, the weeks already played count as what actually happened, and only the weeks left are a projection. The tools then ask one question of every move: does your best possible lineup score more after it than before?
engine
Points over replacement
Raw points don't make a draft board — a quarterback scores more than a tight end, but a league starts one of each and the next quarterback is nearly as good. So every player is measured against the replacement at his position: the last starter a full league would roster. In our default 12-team league that's the 12th quarterback, the 24th running back, the 36th receiver, and the 12th tight end, kicker and defense. Points over that line is value over replacement. It's signed, so a player below the line shows a negative number — he's freely available, or close to it.
data
Where the inputs come from
sources
SportsDataIO box scores, injuries, rosters and depth charts, nflverse historical stats and play-by-play, college stats for incoming rookies, Pro-Football-Reference coaching records
training
Multi-season fits on the modern era; this season's results replace the forecast week by week
holdout
Every served line is saved before kickoff and graded against the box score each week
calibration
Out-of-sample performance
This season's weekly lines, graded against the box score (weeks 1–7)
| stat | player-games | average miss | order agreement |
|---|---|---|---|
| passing yards | 204 | 70.0 | 0.35 |
| passing touchdowns | 204 | 0.90 | — |
| rushing yards | 852 | 17.5 | 0.68 |
| catches | 1,273 | 1.67 | — |
| receiving yards | 1,273 | 21.7 | 0.53 |
Graded only where a player was projected for real volume: 100 or more passing yards, 5 or more rushing yards, at least one catch. Order agreement is the rank correlation between our projections and what happened — 1.0 would be a perfect ordering.
Football weeks are noisy: a single long run or a busted coverage moves a stat line more than anything a projection can see. The order matters most for fantasy — knowing which of two players is likelier to outscore the other — and that's the number we watch.
the math
From projection to fantasy number
Scoring formats
PPR scores a point per catch, a tenth of a point per rushing or receiving yard, one per 25 passing yards, 4 per passing touchdown, 6 per rushing or receiving touchdown, 2 for a two-point conversion, and takes 2 away for an interception or a lost fumble. Half PPR is the same with half a point per catch; standard drops the catch point. Kickers score 3, 4 or 5 per field goal by distance and 1 per extra point. Defenses score sacks, takeaways, touchdowns and safeties, plus a sliding bonus for holding opponents to few points. Defensive players score tackles, sacks, takeaways, passes defended and tackles for loss.
Floor and ceiling
The ceiling is the season a player reaches about one year in ten if it breaks his way; the floor is the quiet season he falls to about one year in ten. For skill players the width comes from how far past projections at his position and scoring level actually missed, so a volatile role gets a wide band and a steady one a narrow band. Kickers, defenses and defensive players get a band proportional to their projection — widest for team defenses, whose scoring swings the most. A week the player has already played has no band: it's a result.
Draft order and auction dollars
The draft board orders players by value over replacement, then by points. There is no outside average draft position anywhere in it — the order is our own projection, scored in your format, for your league size. Auction prices start every player at a dollar and split the rest of the league's budget in proportion to value over replacement. Kickers and defenses are held to the last rounds, the way real drafts take them, without changing their order among themselves. Within each position the board groups players into tiers where the projections bunch together, so you can see where the drop-offs are.
In season: results plus the rest
Once a week is complete — every game final — it counts as what actually happened. A skill player's season total is his real points so far plus a projection for the games left, and that projection blends the preseason forecast with how he's actually played: after four games it's half and half, and this season's form takes over from there. The number of games left respects how often we expected him to play. Kickers, defenses and defensive players keep their preseason season projection all year; their weekly lines still move.
The weekly line
Each week's line starts from his season rate, tilted by how many points that opponent allows to his position and by home field. Close to kickoff, the injury report moves it: a player ruled out goes to zero, an injured running back's carries go to the healthy backs behind him, and one quarterback is named the starter. A player's recent form nudges future weeks within limits, more as his games add up. Injuries are read every hour.
The tools
Lineup fills each slot with the highest-projected eligible player who isn't on a bye. Start/sit compares two players' projections against how much each can swing: a clear gap is a start, a smaller one a lean, and anything closer a toss-up. Trade and add/drop both ask the same thing — how much does your best possible lineup score over the weeks left, before and after the move — and show the gain or loss for each side. Weeks already played are left out, because they can't change.
faq
Common questions
What is 'in a standard fantasy league' on a player card?
His place among the players a standard 12-team, 16-round PPR draft takes off our own board: a kicker and a defense for each team, and the best skill players by our draft order over the other 168 picks — no defensive players, since a standard league doesn't start them. It shows his projected points for the season and per game, his floor, his ceiling and his value over replacement, each as a percentile among the drafted players at his position. A player outside those 192 is shown unplaced: a standard league doesn't draft him.
Where does the average draft position come from?
From us. The draft order on the fantasy board is our own value over replacement, scored in the format and league size you pick. We don't import anyone else's draft rankings.
Why are kickers and defenses so late on the board?
Because that's when leagues draft them, and with good reason: the gap between the best and the 12th kicker is small and hard to predict a season ahead. The board holds them to the last rounds and keeps their order among themselves, so you still see which ones we like.
Why does a player's season total change after every week?
Because one more week is now a result instead of a projection, and his rest-of-season projection has learned from it. A hot start banks real points and lifts the forecast for the games left; a quiet one does the reverse — each a little less as the season goes on.
What is the touchdown panel on a card?
It sets the touchdowns a player scored against what his targets, carries and throws are usually worth across the league. Roles carry from one season to the next far better than touchdown rates do, so a player well above what his chances were worth tends to come back toward them — and one well below tends to bounce up. The panel says which way, and roughly by how much.
Do you include defensive players?
Yes. Defensive linemen, linebackers and defensive backs are projected and scored for leagues that use them, and the fantasy board can add them to the draft order with the slots you play.
apex framework
For the platform-wide methodology framework — pre-registration policy, data philosophy, bias controls, and honesty notes — see the apex methodology page.